Excelsior 1-3 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.29
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
21%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.89
Over 2.5
63%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.11
2-3 Goals
38%
2.07
4-5 Goals
28%
2.4
6+ Goals
16%
4.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.8
X/1
16%
3.96
X/2
9%
19.35
X/X
8%
9.41
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.05
2/2
7%
15.05
2/X
6%
23.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.05 — our 11% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-14.3pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.1pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+10.2pp
37%
Under 2.5
31%
+5.8pp
63%
Over 2.5
69%
-5.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.0pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 14%
+3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
2.14/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.29
+24% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
22.3 Crosses 25.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Vitesse
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.19 xG 1.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 10
304 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.08.2024 Vitesse Vitesse 1-1 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
25.02.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 1-2 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
07.10.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
22.04.2023 Vitesse Vitesse 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
12.08.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 3-1 HT 2-1 Vitesse Vitesse HOL
09.02.2021 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitesse Vitesse HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
1-3
AWAY Vitesse
67% Ball Possession 33%
27 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 7
13 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse beat Excelsior 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Excelsior at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (63%) came in.

On the day, Excelsior had 67% of the ball to Vitesse's 33%, shots finished 27-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitesse led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Excelsior and 0.83 for Vitesse.

What was the final score of Excelsior vs Vitesse?

Excelsior 1-3 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Excelsior win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 59%, draw 20%, Vitesse 21%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Excelsior) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Excelsior) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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