PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Feb 2025

PEC Zwolle
3-3 HT 2-0
Utrecht
📅01/02/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
45%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.0
Over 2.5
58%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.61
No
45%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.64
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
29%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.25
1/2
6%
24.7
1/X
5%
12.6
X/1
12%
6.44
X/2
12%
5.4
X/X
10%
4.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
28.5
2/2
28%
3.23
2/X
5%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+1.0pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.5pp
45%
Away Win
40%
+4.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
46%
-4.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
54%
+4.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.1pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PEC Zwolle v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 45%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.40/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.33
+5% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
21.8 Crosses 18.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PEC Zwolle
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Utrecht
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.94 xG 2.53
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
337 Passes 325
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 31
16 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.08.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
03.04.2024 Utrecht Utrecht 5-1 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
27.08.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
07.05.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
25.09.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 5-1 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
30.01.2021 Utrecht Utrecht 3-3 HT 1-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PEC Zwolle
3-3
AWAY Utrecht
0.62 xG 2.62
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 3
341 Passes 285
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PEC Zwolle and Utrecht couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Utrecht at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PEC Zwolle had 53% of the ball to Utrecht's 47%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 0.62 to 2.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.50 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?

PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split PEC Zwolle 34%, draw 21%, Utrecht 45%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Utrecht) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
1 Feb 2025
22:00 Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard Analysis →
23:00 NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Analysis →