NEC Nijmegen 3-3 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Feb 2025

NEC Nijmegen
3-3 HT 0-0
PSV Eindhoven
📅01/02/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
29%
4.19
Away
46%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.61
No
38%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.19
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
29%
2.6
6+ Goals
13%
6.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
9.46
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.5
1/X
11%
16.75
X/1
7%
12.75
X/2
12%
4.28
X/X
11%
6.83
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.78
2/X
7%
14.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
17%
+9.0pp
29%
Draw
21%
+8.2pp
46%
Away Win
63%
-17.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
58%
+3.9pp
38%
BTTS No
42%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 67%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.43/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.32/0.89
+9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +15%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
282 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 463 · 84%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.9
16.4 Crosses 19.0
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.6

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.73 xG 3.41
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
282 Passes 513
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 41
9 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.09.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
30.03.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.09.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
01.04.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
30.10.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
11.05.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-2 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 3-3 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-3
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
2.57 xG 2.44
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
247 Passes 504
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 0-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was PSV Eindhoven at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 36% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 64%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 2.57 to 2.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.83 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

NEC Nijmegen 3-3 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 26%, draw 29%, PSV Eindhoven 46%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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