NEC Nijmegen 3-1 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 30 Mar 2024

NEC Nijmegen
3-1 HT 1-1
PSV Eindhoven
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.4
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
57%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
5.51
2-3 Goals
39%
2.01
4-5 Goals
32%
2.65
6+ Goals
12%
6.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
10.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
19.95
1/X
7%
18.6
X/1
8%
14.9
X/2
15%
3.73
X/X
9%
7.6
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.65
2/X
6%
18.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 11% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
15%
+6.2pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.1pp
57%
Away Win
66%
-9.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.8pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 71%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +10%
0.89/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.61/0.91
-5% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +5%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 81%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.2
15.7 Crosses 19.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.3

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
0W-0D-6L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.90 xG 3.55
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
299 Passes 503
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 40
8 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.09.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
01.04.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
30.10.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
11.05.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-2 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
12.12.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 1-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
18.02.2017 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 3-1 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-1
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 7
210 Passes 499
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen got the better of PSV Eindhoven 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. PSV Eindhoven carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 34% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 66%, shots finished 8-27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 3.17 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

NEC Nijmegen 3-1 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 21%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 57%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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