Heerenveen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Feb 2025

Heerenveen
2-2 HT 1-1
Fortuna Sittard
📅01/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.5
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.35
X/2
11%
9.15
X/X
13%
5.14
2/1
6%
22.55
2/2
12%
7.08
2/X
5%
15.0
Value flag · 1/X at 13.6 — our 9% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heerenveen v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.81/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.71
-8% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
18.7 Crosses 16.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.25 xG 1.28
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
436 Passes 256
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
03.02.2024 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 3-3 HT 0-2 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
25.11.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
25.01.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-0 HT 0-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL
27.08.2022 Heerenveen Heerenveen 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
05.02.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-0 HT 1-0 Heerenveen Heerenveen HOL

Heerenveen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen
2-2
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
3.17 xG 1.04
63% Ball Possession 37%
26 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 1
393 Passes 213
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
44 Box Touches 10
38 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen and Fortuna Sittard couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Heerenveen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Heerenveen had 63% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 37%, shots finished 26-6, expected goals 3.17 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Sittard led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Heerenveen and 1.83 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Heerenveen 2-2 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen 45%, draw 27%, Fortuna Sittard 28%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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