Mazatlan 1-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Feb 2025

Mazatlan
1-2 HT 0-2
Leon
📅01/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Mazatlan vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.71
Over 2.5
49%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.67
2-3 Goals
38%
1.71
4-5 Goals
23%
3.91
6+ Goals
11%
18.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mazatlan v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.54/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.32
+12% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
16.2 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1

Mazatlan vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Leon
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.28 xG 1.54
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
254 Passes 352
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.11.2024 Leon Leon 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
31.01.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
19.08.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
14.08.2022 Leon Leon 0-3 HT 0-3 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
21.03.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 0-2 Leon Leon MEK

Mazatlan 1-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-2
AWAY Leon
0.84 xG 0.36
55% Ball Possession 45%
8 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
433 Passes 345
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over Mazatlan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Mazatlan at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 55% of the ball to Leon's 45%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 0.84 to 0.36 — on chances, Mazatlan could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.33 for Leon.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Leon?

Mazatlan 1-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mazatlan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 41%, draw 28%, Leon 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mazatlan) ✗ Under 2.5
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