Tijuana 2-3 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒06:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
3.29
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.36 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
27%
+13.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
47%
-13.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 51%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -22%
1.18/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.36
+16% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -38%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 82%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
14.0 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 1.76
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
353 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
28.11.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 3-0 HT 3-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
17.07.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
15.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
2-3
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.11 xG 2.52
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
484 Passes 218
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul edged past Tijuana 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Tijuana at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tijuana had 65% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 35%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.11 to 2.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tijuana and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Cruz Azul?

Tijuana 2-3 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 41%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5
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