Tijuana 3-0 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Nov 2024

Tijuana
3-0 HT 3-0
Cruz Azul
📅28/11/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.91
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
26.0
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
11%
6.97
X/2
14%
4.94
X/X
8%
4.58
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.99
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.0pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+0.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Cruz Azul — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.21/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.16
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 79%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
14.3 Crosses 19.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Tijuana vs Cruz Azul Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
321 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.07.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
31.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
15.07.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
09.01.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
18.08.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-2 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
09.01.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-0 HT 1-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK

Tijuana 3-0 Cruz Azul — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
3-0
AWAY Cruz Azul
2.00 xG 0.34
74% Ball Possession 26%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 3
640 Passes 185
90% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana swept aside Cruz Azul 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Tijuana had 74% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 26%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 2.00 to 0.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Tijuana and 1.50 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Cruz Azul?

Tijuana 3-0 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 28/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 33%, draw 23%, Cruz Azul 44%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cruz Azul) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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