Club America 2-0 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Nov 2024

📅28/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.7
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.35
6+ Goals
8%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 29% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.0
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
21%
5.02
X/2
10%
6.97
X/X
16%
4.71
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.78
2/X
5%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +1%
1.45/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.40
-15% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.7 Crosses 14.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Toluca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.15 xG 1.39
55% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
408 Passes 337
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2024 Toluca Toluca 4-0 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
14.04.2024 Club America Club America 5-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
24.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 1-1 HT 0-1 Club America Club America MEK
15.01.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
23.10.2022 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
20.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 2-0 Club America Club America MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
2-0
AWAY Toluca
1.53 xG 0.67
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
301 Passes 618
88% Pass Accuracy 91%
24 Box Touches 12
8 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Club America vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America beat Toluca 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Club America had 34% of the ball to Toluca's 66%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.53 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Club America and 1.83 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Club America vs Toluca?

Club America 2-0 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 28/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Club America 42%, draw 28%, Toluca 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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