Santa Clara 2-1 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.05
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.19
No
62%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2.07
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
5.69
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.01
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.55
X/1
13%
4.41
X/2
10%
7.14
X/X
11%
3.5
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
15%
6.28
2/X
8%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
45%
-7.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.4pp
34%
Away Win
25%
+8.5pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.8pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.7pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.71/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.14
+23% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.0 Crosses 16.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Clara
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.62 xG 1.26
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
275 Passes 288
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.08.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-2 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
29.01.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-1 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
07.08.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
22.12.2019 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-2 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
2-1
AWAY Casa Pia
1.93 xG 0.15
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
330 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 4
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara squeezed past Casa Pia 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Santa Clara made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santa Clara had 54% of the ball to Casa Pia's 46%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.93 to 0.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santa Clara's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santa Clara and 1.00 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?

Santa Clara 2-1 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 38%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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