Nacional vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
2-0
HT 2-0
Nacional
POR
3-0
HT 2-0
Nacional
POR
2-2
HT 1-2
Arouca
POR
3-3
HT 1-2
Nacional
POR
Nacional 1-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca edged past Nacional 2-1 away from home.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Arouca made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Nacional had 60% of the ball to Arouca's 40%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.39 to 1.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 2.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Arouca?
Nacional 1-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nacional 37%, draw 28%, Arouca 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.