Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.78
Over 2.5
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
16.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 28% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.2
X/1
17%
3.86
X/2
9%
11.4
X/X
12%
5.06
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
7%
10.05
2/X
6%
18.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.61/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.63
-2% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
349 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
24.0 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0W-0D-1L
AWAY AVS
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 0.71
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
420 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 10
36 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 AVS AVS 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-0
AWAY AVS
1.27 xG 0.21
73% Ball Possession 27%
13 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
572 Passes 153
87% Pass Accuracy 65%
21 Box Touches 4
36 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes got the better of AVS 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 73% of the ball to AVS's 27%, shots finished 13-4, expected goals 1.27 to 0.21.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 51%, draw 26%, AVS 23%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ BTTS No
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