Cholet 2-1 Dijon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 1 Mar 2024

Cholet
2-1 HT 0-1
Dijon
📅01/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
44%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.82
No
61%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.79
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
20.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 33% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.46
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
7%
13.4
X/1
8%
6.02
X/2
15%
4.98
X/X
15%
4.09
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
3.41
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
32%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.5pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.9pp
61%
BTTS No
49%
+11.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cholet EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Dijon EU Bookmakers 43%
+7% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
0.98/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.77
-16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
310 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cholet
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Dijon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2023 Dijon Dijon 0-1 HT 0-1 Cholet Cholet FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cholet
2-1
AWAY Dijon
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cholet vs Dijon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cholet nicked a narrow win over Dijon 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dijon at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cholet had 54% of the ball to Dijon's 46%, shots finished 11-3.

What was the final score of Cholet vs Dijon?

Cholet 2-1 Dijon in the France - National League 1 on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cholet vs Dijon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dijon win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cholet 27%, draw 29%, Dijon 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dijon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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