Martigues 2-1 Epinal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - National League 1, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.43
Draw
29%
4.08
Away
22%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.33
No
59%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.17
6+ Goals
8%
20.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.79
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
20.85
X/1
17%
3.28
X/2
7%
14.3
X/X
14%
5.21
2/1
5%
28.0
2/2
9%
13.2
2/X
6%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
66%
-17.5pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.5pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
39%
+2.4pp
59%
BTTS No
61%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Martigues EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Epinal EU Bookmakers 15%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.11/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.97
+12% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Martigues
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Epinal
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
22.09.2023 Epinal Epinal 0-0 HT 0-0 Martigues Martigues FR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Martigues
2-1
AWAY Epinal
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Martigues vs Epinal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Martigues edged past Epinal 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Martigues as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Martigues had 53% of the ball to Epinal's 47%, shots finished 9-8.

What was the final score of Martigues vs Epinal?

Martigues 2-1 Epinal in the France - National League 1 on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Martigues vs Epinal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Martigues win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Martigues 48%, draw 29%, Epinal 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Martigues) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Martigues) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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