Exeter City 1-1 Northampton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.62
Over 2.5
43%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.32
6+ Goals
9%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.48
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
11%
5.03
X/2
17%
6.06
X/X
11%
3.96
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
15%
4.62
2/X EV+ ✓
11%
13.9
Value flag · 2/X at 13.9 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Exeter City EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
1.20/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.88
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +46%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
258 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 65%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
24.1 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Exeter City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Northampton Town
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.11 xG 1.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
283 Passes 206
68% Pass Accuracy 59%
25 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 2-1 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
20.04.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
30.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
30.04.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
07.12.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
08.12.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Exeter City
1-1
AWAY Northampton Town
0.47 xG 0.95
57% Ball Possession 43%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
201 Passes 124
62% Pass Accuracy 51%
16 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Exeter City vs Northampton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Exeter City and Northampton Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 29% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Exeter City had 57% of the ball to Northampton Town's 43%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.47 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Exeter City and 1.67 for Northampton Town.

What was the final score of Exeter City vs Northampton Town?

Exeter City 1-1 Northampton Town in the England - 1st Division on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Exeter City vs Northampton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Exeter City 34%, draw 29%, Northampton Town 37%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Northampton Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Northampton Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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