Northampton Town 2-1 Exeter City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.73
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.88
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
11%
5.32
X/2
15%
5.27
X/X
13%
4.18
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
15%
3.84
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.2pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Northampton Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Exeter City EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.40/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.03
+17% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +32%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
227 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 69%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
17.0 Crosses 14.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Northampton Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Exeter City
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.63 xG 0.95
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
194 Passes 268
57% Pass Accuracy 67%
27 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Exeter City Exeter City İN1
30.09.2023 Exeter City Exeter City 0-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN1
30.04.2022 Northampton Town Northampton Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
07.12.2021 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İN2
08.12.2020 Exeter City Exeter City 1-2 HT 0-1 Northampton Town Northampton Town İNTK
29.06.2020 Northampton Town Northampton Town 4-0 HT 2-0 Exeter City Exeter City İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Northampton Town
2-1
AWAY Exeter City
1.82 xG 1.30
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
194 Passes 331
64% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Northampton Town vs Exeter City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Northampton Town squeezed past Exeter City 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Northampton Town found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Northampton Town had 41% of the ball to Exeter City's 59%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.82 to 1.30.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Northampton Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Northampton Town and 0.83 for Exeter City.

What was the final score of Northampton Town vs Exeter City?

Northampton Town 2-1 Exeter City in the England - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Northampton Town vs Exeter City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Northampton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Northampton Town 36%, draw 28%, Exeter City 36%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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