Cambridge United 0-1 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.06
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.5
X/1
21%
4.73
X/2
11%
6.39
X/X
9%
4.58
2/1
12%
26.5
2/2
11%
4.66
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
30%
-0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambridge United EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.30/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.40
-11% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
278 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 221 · 63%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.5 Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambridge United
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.86 xG 0.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
261 Passes 268
67% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.01.2021 Cambridge United Cambridge United 3-1 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
31.10.2020 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN2
02.11.2019 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
26.12.2018 Cambridge United Cambridge United 2-1 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
06.10.2018 Crawley Town Crawley Town 2-0 HT 0-0 Cambridge United Cambridge United İN2
30.03.2018 Cambridge United Cambridge United 3-1 HT 2-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambridge United
0-1
AWAY Crawley Town
1.60 xG 0.66
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
280 Passes 499
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Cambridge United vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town nicked a narrow win over Cambridge United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cambridge United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cambridge United had 40% of the ball to Crawley Town's 60%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured Cambridge United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambridge United had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cambridge United and 1.33 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?

Cambridge United 0-1 Crawley Town in the England - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambridge United vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambridge United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cambridge United 45%, draw 26%, Crawley Town 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cambridge United), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cambridge United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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