Mansfield Town 3-3 Burton Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.23
Over 2.5
49%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.63
No
53%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.56
2-3 Goals
39%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.27
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.56 — our 29% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.9
X/1
11%
4.05
X/2
11%
9.99
X/X
16%
6.08
2/1
9%
20.6
2/2
8%
7.11
2/X
5%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-9.8pp
28%
Draw
22%
+5.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+10.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.5pp
53%
BTTS No
43%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Burton Albion EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
315 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
Crosses 14.3
Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mansfield Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Burton Albion
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.27 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
311 Passes 409
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 34
22 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.11.2023 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 1-1 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İNTK
12.11.2019 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-2 HT 1-2 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İNTK
10.01.2015 Burton Albion Burton Albion 2-1 HT 2-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
30.08.2014 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
01.01.2014 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Burton Albion Burton Albion İN2
26.11.2013 Burton Albion Burton Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mansfield Town
3-3
AWAY Burton Albion
3.26 xG 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 22
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
367 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
39 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mansfield Town and Burton Albion shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Mansfield Town at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mansfield Town had 54% of the ball to Burton Albion's 46%, shots finished 18-22, expected goals 3.26 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burton Albion led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mansfield Town and 1.33 for Burton Albion.

What was the final score of Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?

Mansfield Town 3-3 Burton Albion in the England - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mansfield Town vs Burton Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mansfield Town win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Mansfield Town 47%, draw 28%, Burton Albion 25%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Mansfield Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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