Lincoln City 1-2 Barnsley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.82
Over 2.5
52%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.65
6+ Goals
12%
15.05
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.65 — our 25% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.89
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
16%
5.63
X/2
12%
5.3
X/X
9%
4.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
30.0
2/2
21%
3.57
2/X
8%
13.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 10% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+4.5pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
51%
-3.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
49%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Barnsley EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +7%
1.33/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.32
+13% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
276 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 70%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
17.3 Crosses 16.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Barnsley
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.39 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
284 Passes 378
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Barnsley Barnsley 1-5 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
25.11.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 2-2 HT 1-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
18.04.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-0 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İN1
25.10.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 0-1 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
30.08.2022 Barnsley Barnsley 0-3 HT 0-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İNTK
11.08.2009 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Barnsley Barnsley İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
1-2
AWAY Barnsley
1.27 xG 0.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
255 Passes 179
69% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Barnsley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barnsley nicked a narrow win over Lincoln City 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 23% / 38% — and on the day Barnsley made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lincoln City had 55% of the ball to Barnsley's 45%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.27 to 0.37 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lincoln City.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lincoln City had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Lincoln City and 0.67 for Barnsley.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Barnsley?

Lincoln City 1-2 Barnsley in the England - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Barnsley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 39%, draw 23%, Barnsley 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lincoln City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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