St. Pauli 0-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
52%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.9
Over
52%
1.85
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.74
No
46%
1.97
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.3
2-3
46%
1.77
4-5
23%
3.37
6+
6%
12.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.5
1/2
4%
23.4
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
9%
8.4
X/2
17%
4.42
X/X
15%
4.89
2/1
2%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.42
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.4 — our 4% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.
SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME St. Pauli The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund The Market 55%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
0.96 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.80
1.72 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.38
Bad Attack Strength Average
Strong Defense Strength Average
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 77%
26 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26
24 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.76 xG 2.01
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
224 Passes 596
71% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 36
11 Crosses 16
18.10.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
18.01.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
08.09.2015 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund HAZ
28.10.2014 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
19.02.2011 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
25.09.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
0 - 2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.41 xG 1.66
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 1
323 Passes 463
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Borussia Dortmund got the better of St. Pauli 2-0 away from home. Level at 0-0 at half-time, the winner was decided in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%, coin-flips both.

The match data tells the story: St. Pauli had 43% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 57%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.41 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for St. Pauli and 2.17 for Borussia Dortmund.

St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Final Score

St. Pauli 0 - 2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 23%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 52%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
1 Mar 2025
17:30 RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Analysis →
17:30 Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg Analysis →
17:30 Heidenheim vs Mönchengladbach Analysis →
17:30 Bochum vs Hoffenheim Analysis →
20:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →