RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities
RB Leipzig v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals
RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
RB Leipzig 1-2 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics
Mainz 05 squeezed past RB Leipzig 2-1 on the road. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%) landed.
On the day, RB Leipzig had 49% of the ball to Mainz 05's 51%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.49.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.17 for Mainz 05.
RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Result & Final Score
RB Leipzig 1 - 2 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
RB Leipzig vs Mainz 05 Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 51%, draw 26%, Mainz 05 23%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig) went the other way.