Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
41%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.53
No
48%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.8
6+ Goals
11%
7.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
5.45
1/2 EV+
12%
21.1
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
13%
8.22
X/2
15%
4.56
X/X
10%
5.74
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
13%
2.4
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+9.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
41%
Away Win
49%
-8.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS No
39%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 54%
+3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -19%
1.37/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.12
+0% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
18.2 Crosses 17.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
3W-2D-1L
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.18 xG 1.63
32% Ball Possession 68%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
212 Passes 563
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 30
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2024 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
04.11.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-0 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
01.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0-3 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
08.10.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
08.01.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-1 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
15.08.2021 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
0-2
AWAY RB Leipzig
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
401 Passes 347
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig beat Mainz 05 2-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 23% / 41% — and on the day RB Leipzig made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 53% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 47%, shots finished 17-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mainz 05 and 0.83 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?

Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 36%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig 41%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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