Freiburg 3-1 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Oct 2024

Freiburg
3-1 HT 3-0
Augsburg
📅19/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Freiburg vs Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.02
6+ Goals
14%
9.39
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.02 — our 28% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
2.05
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
13%
4.02
X/2
11%
10.35
X/X
8%
5.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
2/2
9%
7.57
2/X
6%
15.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
57%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.9pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v Augsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
2.10/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.80
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 70%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.7 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Freiburg vs Augsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Augsburg
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.79 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
292 Passes 312
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.02.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 2-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
01.10.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
28.01.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 3-1 HT 2-1 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.08.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 0-4 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
19.02.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-2 HT 1-2 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
26.09.2021 Freiburg Freiburg 3-0 HT 3-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1

Freiburg 3-1 Augsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
3-1
AWAY Augsburg
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
477 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg saw off Augsburg 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 57% of the ball to Augsburg's 43%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Freiburg and 0.67 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Augsburg?

Freiburg 3-1 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 53%, draw 22%, Augsburg 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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