Mönchengladbach 3-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Oct 2024

📅19/10/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
8.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.54
X/2
14%
8.1
X/X
10%
5.47
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
14%
5.49
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
50%
-10.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.3pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 29%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +39% / +39%
2.03/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.28
+15% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +148%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 75%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.3 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.97 xG 0.70
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
431 Passes 427
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-1 HT 0-1 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
31.10.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-1 HT 3-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
28.10.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
25.10.2011 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
3-2
AWAY Heidenheim
3.61 xG 2.09
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
427 Passes 175
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
39 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mönchengladbach edged past Heidenheim 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 25% / 36% — and on the day Mönchengladbach made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 66% of the ball to Heidenheim's 34%, shots finished 20-19, expected goals 3.61 to 2.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Mönchengladbach's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mönchengladbach and 0.75 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Heidenheim?

Mönchengladbach 3-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mönchengladbach win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 39%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mönchengladbach), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mönchengladbach) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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