Heidenheim 1-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 26% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.58
1/2
6%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.79
X/2
13%
5.81
X/X
12%
5.04
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
15%
3.58
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.9pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -17%
1.39/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.78
-3% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
294 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
22.2 Crosses 14.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.46 xG 1.20
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
460 Passes 484
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 0
31.10.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-1 HT 3-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
28.10.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
25.10.2011 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.17 xG 0.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 4
363 Passes 325
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 7
32 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim and Mönchengladbach couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 53% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 47%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mönchengladbach led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heidenheim and 1.67 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Heidenheim 1-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 39%, draw 27%, Mönchengladbach 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heidenheim) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ BTTS Yes
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