Union Berlin 2-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.02
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.1
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
16.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.84
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.25
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
7%
7.08
X/X
16%
4.43
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
14%
5.3
2/X
8%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-6.7pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.7pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.6pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 31%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.50/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.58
+15% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
22.1 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Berlin
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.27 xG 0.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
283 Passes 423
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-0 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
27.05.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.01.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
24.04.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-1 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
02.01.2021 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-2 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
08.02.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Berlin
2-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.16 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
328 Passes 328
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin squeezed past Werder Bremen 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) promised a tight game; Union Berlin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Union Berlin had 49% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 51%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.16 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Union Berlin and 0.67 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?

Union Berlin 2-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Berlin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 39%, draw 32%, Werder Bremen 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Berlin), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Berlin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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