Wolfsburg 1-3 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2024

Wolfsburg
1-3 HT 1-1
Augsburg
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Wolfsburg vs Augsburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
13%
9.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.05
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.6
X/1
13%
5.14
X/2
13%
6.49
X/X
14%
5.13
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
13%
4.24
2/X
5%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Wolfsburg v Augsburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolfsburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.70/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.38
+10% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
19.2 Crosses 18.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Wolfsburg vs Augsburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolfsburg
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Augsburg
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.82 xG 1.16
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
418 Passes 236
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
28 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 3-2 HT 1-2 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
01.04.2023 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 2-2 HT 0-2 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
08.10.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 1-1 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
03.04.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 3-0 HT 1-0 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1
06.11.2021 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
06.02.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 0-2 HT 0-1 Wolfsburg Wolfsburg AL1

Wolfsburg 1-3 Augsburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolfsburg
1-3
AWAY Augsburg
1.35 xG 0.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
326 Passes 311
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 28
29 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Wolfsburg vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg beat Wolfsburg 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Augsburg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Wolfsburg had 51% of the ball to Augsburg's 49%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.35 to 0.75 — the balance of chances actually favoured Wolfsburg.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Wolfsburg and 1.50 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Wolfsburg vs Augsburg?

Wolfsburg 1-3 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolfsburg vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolfsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Wolfsburg 38%, draw 26%, Augsburg 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Wolfsburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Wolfsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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