Mainz 05 2-0 Bochum — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.19
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
3.03
6+ Goals
10%
9.39
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.19 — our 25% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.9
X/1
13%
4.3
X/2
11%
8.45
X/X
12%
5.54
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
11%
5.95
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.7pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-5.8pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Bochum EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.39/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.56
-13% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
358 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
22.0 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Bochum
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.19 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
258 Passes 308
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2023 Bochum Bochum 2-2 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
28.01.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 5-2 HT 3-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
06.08.2022 Bochum Bochum 1-2 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
18.01.2022 Bochum Bochum 3-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AFK
15.01.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-0 HT 0-0 Bochum Bochum AL1
21.08.2021 Bochum Bochum 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
2-0
AWAY Bochum
2.48 xG 0.78
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
232 Passes 234
64% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Bochum
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 got the better of Bochum 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 50% of the ball to Bochum's 50%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.48 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.67 for Bochum.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Bochum?

Mainz 05 2-0 Bochum in the Germany - Bundesliga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Bochum?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 46%, draw 26%, Bochum 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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