Auckland 4-4 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Mar 2025

Auckland
4-4 HT 2-1
Adelaide United
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Auckland vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.33
Over 2.5
60%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
7.23
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.1
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
13%
4.45
X/2
7%
9.8
X/X
10%
6.12
2/1
6%
19.9
2/2
12%
7.01
2/X
10%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
39%
+1.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
61%
-1.4pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Auckland v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.74/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.95
-26% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
402 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
25.1 Crosses 19.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Auckland vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auckland
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Adelaide United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.93 xG 1.23
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 10
221 Passes 388
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
22.01.2025 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-2 HT 0-0 Auckland Auckland AVUS

Auckland 4-4 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
4-4
AWAY Adelaide United
3.23 xG 4.87
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
260 Passes 363
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 34
20 Crosses 23
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland and Adelaide United shared the points in a 4-4 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Auckland at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Auckland had 44% of the ball to Adelaide United's 56%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 3.23 to 4.87.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Adelaide United?

Auckland 4-4 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Auckland 48%, draw 24%, Adelaide United 27%. The final score 4-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Auckland) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Auckland) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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