Brisbane Roar 1-1 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.69
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
39%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 31% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.5
1/2
6%
20.8
1/X
6%
15.0
X/1
13%
8.89
X/2
15%
4.42
X/X
10%
5.76
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.25
2/X
12%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
24%
+8.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.2pp
39%
Away Win
53%
-14.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.7pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 57%
-5% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
1.54/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.40
+20% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -20%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 80%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.9
16.8 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.28 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 Passes 392
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 2-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
20.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.03.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
29.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
06.01.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
29.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
1-1
AWAY Melbourne Victory
1.97 xG 0.97
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
284 Passes 473
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 12
9 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar and Melbourne Victory couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 39% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 61%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.97 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brisbane Roar and 0.67 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?

Brisbane Roar 1-1 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 32%, draw 28%, Melbourne Victory 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Melbourne Victory), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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