Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 9 Nov 2024

Melbourne Victory
2-0 HT 1-0
Brisbane Roar
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
13%
3.96
X/2
6%
10.85
X/X
10%
6.29
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2 EV+ ✗
15%
7.74
2/X
6%
15.9
Value flag · 2/2 at 7.74 — our 15% vs market 9.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
59%
-9.3pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+2.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.1pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 22%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
1.78/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.80
-16% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 80%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
19.5 Crosses 20.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Brisbane Roar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.18 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
416 Passes 384
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 28
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
03.03.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 3-2 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
29.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
06.01.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
29.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.04.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS

Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory
2-0
AWAY Brisbane Roar
1.59 xG 0.29
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
291 Passes 504
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 13
11 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory got the better of Brisbane Roar 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne Victory as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne Victory had 38% of the ball to Brisbane Roar's 62%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 1.59 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.00 for Brisbane Roar.

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?

Melbourne Victory 2-0 Brisbane Roar in the Australia - A-League on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory vs Brisbane Roar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory 50%, draw 22%, Brisbane Roar 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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9 Nov 2024
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