Utrecht 1-0 NAC Breda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
25%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.01
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
27%
2.94
6+ Goals
14%
9.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
21%
4.16
X/2
9%
10.85
X/X
9%
5.93
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.0
2/2
9%
8.45
2/X
6%
16.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
60%
-5.7pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.9pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.96/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.65
-17% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
30.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
25.7 Crosses 15.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NAC Breda
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.10 xG 1.33
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
426 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.08.2024 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
14.12.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOK
16.03.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-4 HT 0-2 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
05.10.2018 Utrecht Utrecht 2-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
23.12.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
29.10.2017 Utrecht Utrecht 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
1-0
AWAY NAC Breda
2.54 xG 0.48
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
391 Passes 285
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
39 Box Touches 17
30 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs NAC Breda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht squeezed past NAC Breda 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Utrecht had 57% of the ball to NAC Breda's 43%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.54 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Utrecht's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Utrecht and 1.67 for NAC Breda.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs NAC Breda?

Utrecht 1-0 NAC Breda in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs NAC Breda?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 54%, draw 21%, NAC Breda 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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