Mazatlan 1-1 Cruz Azul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
45%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.91
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.6
6+ Goals
8%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 30% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
25%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
19%
+9.9pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.4pp
45%
Away Win
55%
-10.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 59%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -6%
1.13/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.06
+16% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
269 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 82%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
15.8 Crosses 19.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.03 xG 1.66
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
249 Passes 403
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.08.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-2 HT 0-2 Mazatlan Mazatlan CONLK
07.07.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
28.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
16.09.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 2-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
04.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
12.09.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-1
AWAY Cruz Azul
1.06 xG 0.59
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
251 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Cruz Azul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mazatlan and Cruz Azul shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cruz Azul at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 43% of the ball to Cruz Azul's 57%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.06 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruz Azul led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.67 for Cruz Azul.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Cruz Azul?

Mazatlan 1-1 Cruz Azul in the Mexico - Primera on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Cruz Azul?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 29%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Cruz Azul), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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