Cruz Azul 1-0 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.34
Draw
20%
4.62
Away
23%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.88
6+ Goals
13%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
7%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
70%
-12.6pp
20%
Draw
18%
+1.4pp
23%
Away Win
12%
+11.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.9pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 15%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
2.07/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.89
-14% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
393 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 76%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
25.1 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.82 xG 0.84
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 Passes 276
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
16.09.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 2-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
04.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
12.09.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
09.04.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
27.07.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-2 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
1-0
AWAY Mazatlan
1.96 xG 0.60
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 0
458 Passes 207
89% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul nicked a narrow win over Mazatlan 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 66% of the ball to Mazatlan's 34%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.96 to 0.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.50 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan?

Cruz Azul 1-0 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 57%, draw 20%, Mazatlan 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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