Cruz Azul 2-1 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.75
No
45%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
2.93
6+ Goals
13%
8.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.87
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.15
X/1
18%
3.78
X/2
9%
11.7
X/X
12%
6.15
2/1
6%
21.15
2/2
11%
8.78
2/X
6%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
62%
-14.5pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.1pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
47%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.76/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.68
-13% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
20.1 Crosses 14.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.66 xG 0.86
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
416 Passes 267
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-2 HT 2-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
04.03.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
12.09.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-0 HT 2-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
09.04.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
27.07.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-2 HT 0-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
04.03.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
2-1
AWAY Mazatlan
2.29 xG 0.31
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
371 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 8
31 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul squeezed past Mazatlan 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 59% of the ball to Mazatlan's 41%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.29 to 0.31 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cruz Azul's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.33 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan?

Cruz Azul 2-1 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 47%, draw 26%, Mazatlan 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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