Leon 3-2 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.55
No
40%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.6
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.81
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.33
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2
9%
8.47
X/X
11%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✓
12%
21.0
2/2
11%
5.72
2/X
9%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
52%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 28%
-2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -13%
1.49/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.63
+7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
20.4 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.69 xG 1.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
400 Passes 249
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
28 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.11.2023 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 2-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
09.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
20.03.2023 Leon Leon 4-1 HT 3-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.08.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-1 HT 1-1 Leon Leon MEK
25.04.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
22.08.2021 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
3-2
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.57 xG 1.44
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 Passes 158
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leon vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon nicked a narrow win over Santos Laguna 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leon as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leon had 70% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 30%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.57 to 1.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Leon and 1.17 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of Leon vs Santos Laguna?

Leon 3-2 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Leon 45%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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