Monterrey 3-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.79
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 26% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.55
X/1
17%
3.69
X/2
10%
11.7
X/X
13%
5.85
2/1
9%
22.15
2/2
11%
9.12
2/X
7%
17.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
61%
-13.3pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.2pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.98/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.67
+5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
419 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
20.5 Crosses 14.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 1.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
30.11.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
02.07.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-1 HT 0-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.01.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 3-1 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
18.07.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.05.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
3-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
0.70 xG 0.53
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 4
436 Passes 597
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
20 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey got the better of Atletico San Luis 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monterrey had 43% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 57%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.70 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Monterrey and 1.00 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis?

Monterrey 3-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 48%, draw 26%, Atletico San Luis 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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