Tigres UANL 1-0 Necaxa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.43
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.85
No
48%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.06
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
65%
-13.7pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.4pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+8.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
50%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Necaxa EU Bookmakers 18%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.66/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.59
+1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
23.6 Crosses 15.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Necaxa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.05 xG 0.67
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
432 Passes 266
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.04.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 5-2 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
21.08.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-3 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
04.03.2023 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
09.10.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
28.08.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 0-0 HT 0-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
20.04.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 2-0 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-0
AWAY Necaxa
1.68 xG 0.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
430 Passes 309
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL squeezed past Necaxa 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 57% of the ball to Necaxa's 43%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.68 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tigres UANL and 0.67 for Necaxa.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

Tigres UANL 1-0 Necaxa in the Mexico - Primera on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 51%, draw 26%, Necaxa 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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