Nacional 2-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Mar 2025

📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
40%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.64
Over 2.5
54%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2.56
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.29
6+ Goals
11%
22.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.29 — our 26% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.03
1/2
9%
32.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
10%
5.66
X/2
18%
5.6
X/X
11%
3.92
2/1
7%
33.0
2/2
13%
3.96
2/X
8%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
30%
-4.2pp
40%
Away Win
35%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
57%
-11.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
43%
+11.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+5.7pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.31/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.31
-2% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
24.4 Crosses 16.8
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Famalicao
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
221 Passes 346
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional Nacional POR
16.05.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 3-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
30.01.2021 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-1
AWAY Famalicao
0.91 xG 1.20
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
293 Passes 231
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional edged past Famalicao 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 25% / 40% — and on the day Nacional made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Nacional had 54% of the ball to Famalicao's 46%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 0.91 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Nacional and 1.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Famalicao?

Nacional 2-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nacional 35%, draw 25%, Famalicao 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Famalicao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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