Famalicao 0-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.92
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.92 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.27
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.75
X/1
12%
3.92
X/2
7%
9.39
X/X
13%
4.52
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
15%
7.71
2/X
7%
15.7
Value flag · 2/2 at 7.71 — our 15% vs market 9.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.43/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.50
-12% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
23.8 Crosses 18.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Nacional
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 0.98
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
324 Passes 260
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.05.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 3-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
30.01.2021 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
0-0
AWAY Nacional
0.92 xG 0.62
68% Ball Possession 32%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
390 Passes 142
84% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao and Nacional fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Famalicao at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Famalicao had 68% of the ball to Nacional's 32%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 0.92 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Famalicao and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Nacional?

Famalicao 0-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 46%, draw 26%, Nacional 28%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Famalicao) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
29 Sep 2024
20:00 Porto vs Arouca Analysis →
22:30 Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave Analysis →
22:30 Santa Clara vs Boavista Analysis →