Porto vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Porto v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Porto vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
0-1
HT 0-1
Porto
POR
4-0
HT 1-0
Arouca
POK
5-1
HT 3-0
Arouca
POR
5-1
HT 3-0
Arouca
POR
Porto 4-0 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Porto cruised past Arouca 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Porto had 57% of the ball to Arouca's 43%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 3.09 to 0.22.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Porto and 1.00 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Porto vs Arouca?
Porto 4-0 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Porto vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Porto 69%, draw 18%, Arouca 13%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.