Sporting Braga 4-0 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.44
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 27% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.01
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
14%
3.71
X/2
8%
10.75
X/X
9%
5.4
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
13%
8.66
2/X
7%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.8pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -2%
2.02/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.41
-4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 79%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
25.3 Crosses 16.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.09 xG 1.05
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
410 Passes 287
81% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.03.2024 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
07.10.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
05.03.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
11.09.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-3 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
17.04.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 0-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
22.12.2020 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
4-0
AWAY Rio Ave
3.22 xG 0.89
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
431 Passes 376
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga swept aside Rio Ave 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 53% of the ball to Rio Ave's 47%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 3.22 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.50 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave?

Sporting Braga 4-0 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 51%, draw 23%, Rio Ave 27%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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