Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Vitoria Guimaraes v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals
Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
0-0
HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
POR
0-1
HT 0-1
Casa Pia
POR
0-1
HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
PORLC
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics
Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Casa Pia 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.
On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 64% of the ball to Casa Pia's 36%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.88 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria Guimaraes's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.67 for Casa Pia.
What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 48%, draw 28%, Casa Pia 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.