Casa Pia 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.54
Over 2.5
39%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.32
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
5.24
6+ Goals
7%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.42
1/2
8%
31.0
1/X
9%
15.8
X/1
8%
7.42
X/2
17%
4.05
X/X
12%
3.82
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.77
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
25%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
48%
Away Win
47%
+1.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 51%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
0.90/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/0.78
-32% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 78%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
13.8 Crosses 24.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
1.10 xG 1.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
263 Passes 450
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 HT 0-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
23.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
29.08.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
01.08.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
1-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.98 xG 0.60
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 9
179 Passes 385
67% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia and Vitoria Guimaraes couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Casa Pia had 38% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 62%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.98 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Casa Pia had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Casa Pia and 0.20 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Casa Pia 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 25%, draw 28%, Vitoria Guimaraes 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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