Estrela 2-1 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.4
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.99
6+ Goals
8%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.62
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
14.25
X/1
13%
5.86
X/2
9%
4.83
X/X
20%
3.77
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.52
2/X
7%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.0pp
34%
Draw
29%
+4.1pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-5.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.5pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 43%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.31/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/0.90
-15% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
327 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.5 Crosses 18.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-2D-3L
AWAY Moreirense
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.05 xG 1.25
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
310 Passes 305
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
12 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.04.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 2-0 Estrela Estrela POR
11.11.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
06.05.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR2
31.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
27.11.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 4-2 HT 2-1 Estrela Estrela PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-1
AWAY Moreirense
0.97 xG 1.58
37% Ball Possession 63%
4 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 7
174 Passes 322
69% Pass Accuracy 79%
6 Box Touches 16
5 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela edged past Moreirense 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 34% / 34% — and on the day Estrela made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 37% of the ball to Moreirense's 63%, shots finished 4-14, expected goals 0.97 to 1.58 — the balance of chances actually favoured Moreirense.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Estrela and 2.20 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Moreirense?

Estrela 2-1 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Estrela 33%, draw 34%, Moreirense 34%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (33/34/34) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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