Arouca 0-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 1 Mar 2025

Arouca
0-2 HT 0-1
Porto
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
47%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
48%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 26% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.94
1/2
13%
23.4
1/X
8%
17.3
X/1
14%
10.6
X/2
16%
4.0
X/X
9%
5.2
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.03
2/X
10%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
18%
+7.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
47%
Away Win
58%
-10.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -14%
0.95/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.94
-31% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +16%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
227 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 81%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
16.9 Crosses 18.9
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7

Arouca vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Porto
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.68 xG 2.75
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
267 Passes 450
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 45
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.09.2024 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
12.02.2024 Arouca Arouca 3-2 HT 2-1 Porto Porto POR
03.09.2023 Porto Porto 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
08.05.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
11.01.2023 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POK
29.12.2022 Porto Porto 5-1 HT 3-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Arouca 0-2 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
0-2
AWAY Porto
0.34 xG 1.55
49% Ball Possession 51%
5 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
360 Passes 392
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto got the better of Arouca 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Arouca had 49% of the ball to Porto's 51%, shots finished 5-9, expected goals 0.34 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Arouca and 2.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Porto?

Arouca 0-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Arouca 26%, draw 27%, Porto 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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