Marsilya vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Marsilya v Lyon — Team-Based Signals
Marsilya vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Marsilya 3-2 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics
Marsilya nicked a narrow win over Lyon 3-2. From 0-1 down at the break, the game flipped completely after half-time. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, possession split 52% to 48% in Marsilya's favour, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.33 to 1.47.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for Marsilya against 1.17 for Lyon.
Marsilya vs Lyon Result & Final Score
Marsilya 3 - 2 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 01/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Marsilya vs Lyon Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 49%, draw 26%, Lyon 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.