Lyon 1-0 Marsilya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Feb 2024

Lyon
1-0 HT 1-0
Marsilya
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Lyon vs Marsilya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.15
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.68
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.11
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
10%
5.87
X/2
10%
5.16
X/X
10%
4.41
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
18%
3.42
2/X
8%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+1.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon v Marsilya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Marsilya EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +18%
1.37/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.21
+38% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
14.0 Crosses 15.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Lyon vs Marsilya Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Marsilya
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.05 xG 1.39
50% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
406 Passes 387
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 3-0 HT 2-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
23.04.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
06.11.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
01.05.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 0-3 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
01.02.2022 Lyon Lyon 2-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
28.02.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 1-1 HT 1-1 Lyon Lyon FR1

Lyon 1-0 Marsilya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-0
AWAY Marsilya
1.43 xG 0.33
37% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
298 Passes 553
79% Pass Accuracy 88%
23 Box Touches 13
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Marsilya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon squeezed past Marsilya 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Lyon made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lyon had 37% of the ball to Marsilya's 63%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.43 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lyon and 1.33 for Marsilya.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Marsilya?

Lyon 1-0 Marsilya in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Marsilya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lyon 36%, draw 28%, Marsilya 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Marsilya), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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