Reims 2-3 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.4
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.9
X/1
14%
4.12
X/2
12%
8.45
X/X
13%
4.67
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
11%
6.56
2/X
7%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
51%
-7.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Reims EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 26%
-6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.66/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.79
-11% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +0%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.1 Crosses 16.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Reims
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Toulouse
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.46 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
335 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.10.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
26.02.2023 Reims Reims 3-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
08.02.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 3-1 HT 2-0 Reims Reims FRK
11.09.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 1-0 HT 1-0 Reims Reims FR1
14.12.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 0-1 HT 0-1 Reims Reims FR1
10.02.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-0 Reims Reims FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Reims
2-3
AWAY Toulouse
2.79 xG 1.51
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 6
408 Passes 231
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 19
35 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Reims vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse squeezed past Reims 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Reims at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Reims had 62% of the ball to Toulouse's 38%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.79 to 1.51 — on chances, Reims could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Reims and 1.00 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Reims vs Toulouse?

Reims 2-3 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Reims vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Reims win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Reims 44%, draw 27%, Toulouse 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Reims) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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