Monaco 1-1 Le Havre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Feb 2024

Monaco
1-1 HT 0-0
Le Havre
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Monaco vs Le Havre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.99
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
10%
15.6
X/1
16%
3.81
X/2
9%
10.55
X/X
10%
5.65
2/1
8%
21.75
2/2
9%
8.09
2/X
9%
16.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
59%
-12.2pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.8pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monaco v Le Havre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Le Havre EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.64/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.64
+5% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +61%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
428 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
18.9 Crosses 11.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Monaco vs Le Havre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Le Havre
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.59 xG 1.44
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
472 Passes 227
85% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Le Havre Le Havre 0-0 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
08.02.2013 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
31.08.2012 Le Havre Le Havre 2-1 HT 1-0 Monaco Monaco FR2
20.04.2012 Monaco Monaco 1-0 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
17.12.2011 Le Havre Le Havre 2-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR2
04.04.2009 Monaco Monaco 0-1 HT 0-0 Le Havre Le Havre FR1

Monaco 1-1 Le Havre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1-1
AWAY Le Havre
1.40 xG 0.10
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 4
479 Passes 263
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 9
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Le Havre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco and Le Havre shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Monaco had 61% of the ball to Le Havre's 39%, shots finished 17-3, expected goals 1.40 to 0.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monaco and 1.00 for Le Havre.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Le Havre?

Monaco 1-1 Le Havre in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Le Havre?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Monaco 47%, draw 29%, Le Havre 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Monaco), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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